REVIEW
After a nine week rally with only one week lower (-0.5%) and a gain of 39%, the market displayed some weakness: SPX/DOW -4.8% and the NDX/NAZ -3.1%. The Asian markets were mixed, with India and China sporting gains. European markets were -3.1%, and the Commodity equity markets were -4.65%. Economic reports displayed continued weakness, but at a decelerating rate. Retails sales -0.4% v -1.3%, Inventories -1.0% v -1.3% and Industrial production -0.5% v -1.7%. Prices are creeping up again; Imports +1.6% v +0.2%, PPI +0.3% v -1.2% and CPI 0.0% v -0.1%. The biggest shocker was the Budget. The government had a $21 bln deficit in April, tax receipts month, versus last year’s $159 bln surplus. Not certain if that has ever happened since they started collecting income taxes in the early 1900’s.
LONG TERM: bear market
Nineteen months into the bear market and many have turned FED chairman Bernanke’s "detecting green shoots of an economic recovery" March comment into a mantra. They may be right in the end, but for now it sounds like the spider trying to lure more victims into its web. Technically this bear market continues to unfold as expected. After the October 2007 high at SPX 1576 the market declined in a series of three Major waves: Mar08 1257, May08 1440 and Mar09 667, to complete Primary wave A. Both of the declining Major waves subdivided into five Intermediate waves, see SPX weekly chart link below. This is what we call a zigzag in simple Elliott Wave terms: 5-3-5. After Primary wave A bottomed we expected a 50% rally/retracement Primary wave B rally. This has been underway since March 6th SPX 667 low. A 50% retracement would suggest SPX 1122, and a 50% rally SPX 1001. Thus far the SPX has rallied 39% to 930, only about 70 points from the lower target. After Primary wave B concludes a potentially severe negative Primary C will get underway. Best case scenario would suggest a retest of SPX 667 to form a huge 3-3-5 flat. Worse case would be another zigzag bottoming around SPX 400. No green shoots under either of these scenarios. Suggest appropriate action to protect your assets as Primary wave B concludes.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
After the SPX bottomed at 667 it started to impulse higher for the first time since 2007. These impulsing waves then began morphing into rising diagonal triangles. The first one topped in late March at SPX 833, and then pulled back 53 points to 780. The next one topped in mid-April at SPX 876, and then pulled back 49 points to SPX 827. From that low the market impulsed to SPX 930 a week ago, and has now pulled back 51 points to 879 on friday. Notice the symmetry in the pullbacks. As the waves unfolded the count being displayed by the market unfolded. Currently we are following two potential short term scenarios, one posted on the SPX charts and the other on the DOW charts. Both suggest higher prices ahead for this uptrend, yet each presents a different view on how it could unfold. The counts were switched today for this report. The DOW count suggests that Major wave A of Primary B just concluded and a declining Major wave B in now underway. When it concludes Major wave C should carry the market to the upper target near SPX 1122. The SPX count suggests that waves Major A and Major B concluded at 833 and 780 respectively near the end of March. From that low we are counting an impulsing Major wave C with wave 1 at 876, wave 2 at 827, wave 3 at 930 and wave 4 bottoming now at 879. This count, of course, requires that wave 4 does not drop below wave 1 (876), unless a very rare expanding diagonal unfolds. The SPX count allows for a series of fibonacci relationships, which is discussed below.
SHORT TERM:
Support remains at SPX 848 and then 789, with resistance at 912 and then 935. Short term momentum was slightly overbought at thursdays high, and is now displaying a positive RSI divergence on many timeframes. Also, the daily RSI is now the most oversold it has been during the entire uptrend, and the weekly RSI has pulled back from overbought levels. There are three fibonacci clusters that are identifiable using the current SPX count. The first is between SPX 937-946, the second between SPX 975-982, and the third between SPX 1034-1049. These levels are obtained by applying 0.618 and 1.0 fibonacci relationships between each of the waves.
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were mixed while all markets remained in uptrends, India and China were higher for the week.
The European markets were -3.1% while still in uptrends. The DAX is displaying a negative divergence, but not the FTSE.
The Commodity equity markets were -4.65% while still in uptrends. The TSX is displaying a negative divergence, but not Brazil.
COMMODITIES
Bonds rallied 1% this week while in a downtrend. Waiting to see how bonds react after Primary wave C gets underway.
Crude tumbled 4.6% this week while still in an uptrend. It ran into resistance recently at the $60+ level.
Gold has confirmed an uptrend, following Silver, and was +1.6% this week. Expecting higher prices ahead.
Currencies were a bit volatile this week. The uptrending Yen was +3.5%, the uptrending Euro was -1.0%, and the downtrending USD was +0.6%.
NEXT WEEK
A light economic calendar. Monday at 1:00 starts the week with the Home builders index. Tuesday we have Housing starts. Then on thursday the weekly Jobless claims, Leading indicators and the Philly FED. As for the FED, on wednesday the release the FOMC minutes. Friday FED chairman gives commencement remarks at Boston College Law school. Maybe he’ll cover this weekends Bilderberg meeting, (just joking). Saturday vice chairman Kohn gives a speech at Princeton. Best to your weekend and week!
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
From the Cave….wetzelroy发表: Today\’s A/D ratio is the best since 9 April.NYSE Up/Dn volume > 9:1do not know where you get your info, but it is not the NY market, in USA….Back to the darkness…
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Randy, there\’s no way you could make any argument for beign long right now. Volume should follow the trend, as Art Cashin says. Someone is relentlessly frying shorts..even though said party will probably be the biggest shorter in P3.
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VIX has reached an imp support at 30, shaping a LDT. Volume was low across the board. What the heck…..analysis is pointless..I agree with Randy on the perception of the market.
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We are all short…so we gripe about it. If we were long, we would think it was great. 😉
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I would like to see 85 broad street put out of business..they\’re about the only ones buying in this crap market
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Brett…It\’s called MANIPULATION !
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High of day close enough to close. Wish I\’d had some longs but at least I wasn\’t short. Gah…
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