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7月23日

thursday update

SHORT TERM: SPX breaks through 961 pivot, rally continues, DOW +188
Overnight the Asian markets were all higher. Europe opened lower but closed +2.00%. US index futures were higher overnight and at 8:30 the weekly Jobless claims were reported at 554K v 524K. The market opened relatively flat at SPX 953 but immediately started to rally. At 9:30 FED governor Tarullo's testimony was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/tarullo20090723a.htm. At 10:00 Existing homes sales were reported at 489K v 472K. The market continued to rally breaking through the OEW 961 pivot by about 10:30. By 1:30 the SPX hit 979 and is now approaching the OEW 990 pivot. The market pulled back only a few points over the next half hour, and then hit the highs again before pulling back some into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +2.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.40%. Bonds dropped over one point, Crude rallied $1.75, Gold slipped $3.00, and the Euro was flat. Support for the SPX now notches up to 961 and then 935, with resistance at 990 and then 1018. Short term momentum is again extremely overbought. Tomorrow, UofM Consumer sentiment reading at 10:00.
This rally from the SPX 869 low continues as it now has extended to 110 SPX points in just over two weeks. Short term negative divergences continue to be ignored. The rally still appears to be wave A of an ABC uptrend. A 50 point pullback can occur at any time. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market

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11 月 11 日
Nader发表:
I don't see why everyone seems astonished of the market action!!!??? The target of the this B wave is 1050-1100 anyway, so cheer up...And don't tell me it could be that we've already seen the bottom and that we are in a first wave upwards...Of course, this is a probability, however, I don't see it happening...

As far as I know, the market usually leads the economy by 6-9 months, very classic...Do you really think that unemployment is going to improve within 6 months from now?? I don't think anyone can talk about a recovery without talking about unemployment...I don't really think that corporates are going to think about re-hiring during the next 6 months, so at least, unemployment is staying the same at least, if not worse...

Second, do you really think that with health care and utilities leading each rally on each day, that this would signal a recovery..This actually says that there is more trouble ahead of us...If funds are buying, then they are not buying growth, they are buying income, mainly health care and utilities...

I don't want to seem like populating a conspiracy, but I think it was like this...Funds under TARP was available from the government to Banks...Most banks who reported results reported an improvement in trading operations, markets rallied heavily, oil went from 40s to 70s and so on...

What do you think banks did with the TARP money???!!!! Obviously, they used it for their trading operations, enhancing their trading profits and thus managing to cover some of the losses from the bad mortgage and loan operations...When markets go up, especially the stocks of companies under heavy attacks (Like Citi for example), rating agencies stop downgrading them and they stop downgrading their ratings and they do have a reason to do so (Since downgrades were mainly done based on the fall of the stock price which usually triggered defaults since it becomes harder to obtain funding with lower stock prices)..When downgrades stops, balance sheets of other banks stop bleeding and things become stable...TARP money is returned back and everyone lives happily ever after....Do you know what will probably happen when TARP money starts going fully back?? The market will actually start going down to liquidate the TARP money back and good news about corporates and banks returning government money because they don't need it now will flow (which is supposed to be positive news) and guess what, the market will keep going down infront of such good news... :)

Thanks...
7 月 24 日
tony发表:
Only had to delete one post today.
Please abstain from making religious comments.
Have a good weekend guys.
7 月 24 日
egoldspot发表:
Out. @ 979 hAve great weekend
7 月 24 日
egoldspot发表:
I M out of short 977 and now long as w3 down turn wave 3 up
7 月 24 日
没有名字发表:
S2 come home
7 月 24 日
Petra发表:
I never see S2 anymore ? Is he not on this forum anymore ?
7 月 24 日
frank发表:
the only thing I see is that there is a uptrendline on 1 minutes chart and it simply will not break... so unless that breaks and we break down below the breakout point of around 97.5 on SPY, bull in control all the way into close...
7 月 24 日
frank发表:
H&S? egoldspot where you spot that? on what time frame?
7 月 24 日
market manipulation + now we came to cycle low and rally is natural
7 月 24 日
egoldspot发表:
H& S stArted doubled down
7 月 24 日
没有名字发表:
Its easy to drink bull tea. Jawla, ew boys only one to call this as the heard feel off the cliff. Denile is good. Contertrend hard to deal with. 5500 bankruptcies a week, 350,000 houses forclosed on and 1/2 million losing jobs a month. Keep buying!
7 月 24 日
We can't possibly go any higher because we are in the upper right corner of my chart paper... ;)

Even Pavlov's dogs stopped complaining about the bell and started drooling after a while...
7 月 24 日
frank发表:
egoldspot is right, bull market is always better then bear market because bull market you can make more then 100% (for long term investor) where as bear market the most you can make is 99.99% (100% if spx goes to zero)...
7 月 24 日
egoldspot发表:
Y u worrying in cAse of bull market u will be RICH
7 月 24 日
What if the Bear market is over and we are seeing the first wave of a new bull market.....what if all the E Wavers are proven wrong!!!!
7 月 24 日
egoldspot发表:
H& S r fast n furious it's on 30 min it wont give much time either ways but I am crossing for short this time
7 月 24 日
7 月 24 日

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