10月19日
monday update
SHORT TERM: market resumes its rally, DOW +92
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed +1.50%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened slightly higher at SPX 1089 to 1091. By 10:00 the SPX had slipped back to 1086 but then started to rally. At 11:00 FED chairman Bernanke's speech was released:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091019a.htm. The market continued to move higher and by 12:00 the SPX made a new uptrend higher at 1099. The market then went sideways for an hour or so while the Home builders index was released: 18% v 19%. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1100 and went sideways again for another hour before pulling back some into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Bonds were up 7 ticks, Crude added 65 cents, Gold gained $12.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX moves back up to 1090 and then 1061, with resistance at 1107 and then 1133. Short term momentum moved up to overbought and remained there into the close. Tomorrow, PPI and Housing starts at 8:30.
The rally today pushed the SPX to new highs at 1100. This helps confirm that the Minute wave 4 low occurred at SPX 1082. Since Minute wave 3 was 30 points and shorter then Minute wave 1, then Minute wave 5 can not exceed SPX 1112 (1082 + 30) to maintain this count. Heavy resistance should be encountered at the long term OEW 1107 pivot. Negative divergences are forming on many timeframes. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend makes new high at SPX 1100
LONG TERM: bear market rally
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